Notes post T.R.A.F.F.I.C. auction
The T.R.A.F.F.I.C. East in Orlando, Florida ended with some decent sales but left me thinking about a few things that I`d like to share with you.
On average, during the live auction there were ONLY a total of 75 bidders connected or bidding live over there.
I CAN`T IMAGINE WHAT would happen to the prices if domains where “discovered” from Wall Street for substantial alternative investments.
Imagine having some 10,000 bidders over a LLL.com in 10 years from now?
Someone argued that by now Wall Street traders and investors should know about our industry.
All I can say is that I have been heavily involved in stocktrading from 1999 to 2004 and I can tell you that successful traders don`t have time to go to the toilet, let alone read news about domains. Do you think that a Wall Street trader knows how much money your house is worth? That`s a real estate agent job. But still the connection is there because of big banks involved and also investment funds that own real estate.
Within the domain industry what is missing is that connection. Once that will happen it will trigger to new levels.
Some poor blind naysayers would bark WOF WOF.
Just watch where they`ll have to hide in few years.
In 2010 those domainers will have to start drinking if they did not start yet to forget how blind they have been so far.
By 2015 when reasonably we shoul be around the 50 % of internet penetration Worldwide, they`ll be better turning off the pc totally.
LLL.com prices are doubling each year.
Some people call it bubble.
I may agree. Still nothing stops me from riding the wave, does it?
Real estate has bubbled and now is crashing. Between a few years it will bubble again, it`s a circle.
Stocks have bubbled in the 1999-2000, crashed till 2003 and now bubbling again and will crash again and so on.
Domains prices have still a way too long before to crash because Internet World wide penetration is still very low.
They say a picture is better than 1000 words so have a look at this graph:
The red dot is where we are now in May 2008……21 %.
What do you think will happen to the prices in about 10 years from know?
When it will be around 70% , then it will be time to sell…..and relax because I`ll be able to retire early, like most of LLL.com and LLLL.com LONG TERM holders will.
Another graph (courtesy of ERGO @ NamePros) shows the current trend of dropping LLLL.com :
Despite the drops increased in May (in January happened the same thing compared to the month before) the long term trend is clear: these short .com domains are getting rarer and rarer.
These numbers should consider also of the fact that on average in any day of the year there should be:
456,976 / 365 = 1,251 LLLL to be renewed
If those were left to drop (insane) that would be about 37,530 on a 30 days month.
Instead ,in May we have been on an average of 44 drops a day.
So we are running already ONLY on about 3.54 % dropping names of the total to be renewed.
Note: I know that May is not finished yet, but all the drops for the next few days left in May are known and has been included in the numbers.
Can`t wait to see what happens when we hit less than 10 drops per day (predicted to happen between August and October).
Comments welcome as usual!
Can you talk about why your account is closed over @ namepros, I’m hoping it’s just temporary or else our community would suffer a great loss.